NOAA Predicts Wet, Warm Winter for CNY NOAA Predicts Warm, Wet Winter for CNY

SYRACUSE, NY– Central New Yorkers can expect another warm and wet winter according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its 2021 Winter Outlook this weekend. The annual report calls for above-average temperatures and precipitation December 2021 through February 2022.

This is the second year in a row La Niña conditions have developed and are forecast to continue through the winter months, Jon Gottschalck, the chief of the climate center’s operational prediction branch, said in a press release.


NOAA Winter Outlook Oct. 25
NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook 2021-2022 map for temperature shows warmer-than-average conditions across New York State. (NOAA, using NWS CPC data)
© 2021 NOAA Climate

In the La Niña climate pattern, trade winds are stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, currents bring deep, cold water to the surface of the ocean.

NOAA says the cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward, leading to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest.

La Niña winters are typically cooler and wetter in the northern U.S.; however, with other long-term trends like climate change, temperatures have actually been warmer in areas like CNY according to meteorologists at NOAA.


Precipitation Outlook NOAA Oct. 25
NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Northern and Central New York. (NOAA based on NWS CPC data)
© 2021 NOAA Climate

It is important to note that weather is rather unpredictable as we frequently see here in CNY. This latest outlook is a prediction, not a given.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the outlook each month. The next update will be available on the center’s website November 19.

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